This paper performs an analysis of different renewable energy technologies over time, assessing the uncertainty of different parameters and the corresponding impact on roadmaps. The analysis is focused on the two most deployed renewable technologies - solar photovoltaic and wind energy - not only because of historical data availability, but also due to the different pathways these technologies have taken.
The analysis consists in collecting data from various roadmaps presented in the last decade for both technologies, and comparing estimations presented in roadmaps against real data, regarding a list of key indicators: cumulative installed capacity, energy produced, investments expenditures (R&D funding, capital investments), feed-in tariffs, cost of electricity/LCOE and efficiency.
The results show that it is possible to identify a set of parameters that suffered oscillations due to uncertainties and its causes. In case these parameters are monitored in detail, it is possible to devise corrective actions that can be included in the roadmap to make it a flexible and effective policy tool to promote the development of ocean energies.
